A Mathematical Approach to Malaria Eradication: Insights from Vaccination Strategies

Authors

  • Saheed Ajao Department of Mathematics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria.
  • John O. Akanni Department of Mathematics, Saveetha School of Engineering, Saveetha Nagar, Chennai, 602 105, Tamil Nadu, India.
  • Titilayo Akinwumi Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Elizade University, Ilara-Mokin, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria.
  • Musibau A. Omoloye Department of Mathematical Science, Nigerian Defence Academy, Kaduna, Nigeria.
  • Isaac Olopade Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
  • Olusola A. Odebiyi Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria.
  • F. Fatmawati Department of Mathematics, Universitas Airlangga, Kampus C Mulyorejo, Surabaya, Indonesia.

Keywords:

Vaccination, Vaccine efficacy, Malaria, Control reproduction number, Stability, Centre manifold theory

Abstract

In the continued effort to eradicate malaria, the World Health Organisation recently recommended the use of matrix RS1 as a malaria vaccine, the second vaccine after the launch of the first one in 2021. However, efficacy has been a critical issue with vaccines. This study used mathematical modelling to assess the potential impact of vaccines on malaria eradication. The aim of this study is to provide quantitative information on the impact of vaccines on malaria eradication. The formulated model considers vaccination and vaccine efficacy in studying their impact on malaria control. The malaria-free equilibrium and the metric that determines the spread of malaria and its extinction are obtained. Analysis of the existence of an endemic state reveals that there are multiple equilibria, which leads to a backward bifurcation when the bifurcation coefficient a >0. Global endemic stability is established when Rvo>1. Furthermore, the global sensitivity analysis conducted identifies parameters such as the probability of transmission from humans to mosquitoes, the probability of transmission from mosquitoes to humans, biting rate, mosquito recruitment rate, treatment rate, mosquito death rate, and vaccine efficacy as significant determinants of malaria spread and control. Further numerical simulations highlight the importance of vaccine effectiveness in controlling malaria, as a highly effective vaccine is required, along with other interventions, to successfully combat the spread of malaria.

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2026-03-27

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Special Issue on Mathematical and Computational Methods in Nonlinear Systems: Theory and Applications

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Copyright (c) 2026 Saheed Ajao, John O. Akanni, Titilayo Akinwumi, Musibau A. Omoloye, Isaac Olopade, Olusola A. Odebiyi, F. Fatmawati

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A Mathematical Approach to Malaria Eradication: Insights from Vaccination Strategies. (2026). Journal of Prime Research in Mathematics, 41-67. https://jprm.sms.edu.pk/index.php/jprm/article/view/250