Dynamical Analysis of Nipah Virus Transmission Model
Keywords:
Nipah virus, equilibrium point, basic reproduction number, stability analysis, numerical simulation.Abstract
Nipah virus can be transmitted from animals to humans through contaminated food or direct human-to human contact. In this paper, we formulate and analyze an SEIRD model to describe the transmission dynamics of the Nipah virus by incorporating two significant factors: unprotected contact with the corpses of Nipah virus–infected individuals prior to burial and the incubation period during transmission. The SEIRD model partitions the total human population into five compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I), recovered (R), and deceased (D). Two equilibrium points are identified in the system, namely the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE). The basic reproduction number R0, is derived using the next-generation matrix method. Stability analysis reveals that the DFE is locally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1, indicating disease eradication, whereas the EE is locally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1, signifying the persistence of the disease within the population. Furthermore, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the analytical findings and to investigate the influence of key epidemiological parameters on disease transmission. The results provide new insights into the role of unprotected contact with corpses and incubation delays in Nipah virus dynamics, offering valuable guidance for the development of more effective prevention and control strategies.
Downloads
References
[1] G. Arunkumar, R. Chandni, D. T. Mourya, S. K. Singh, R. Sadanandan, P. Sudan, and B. Bhargava, “Outbreak In vestigation of Nipah Virus Disease in Kerala, India, 2018,” Journal of Infectious Diseases 219(12) (2019), 1867–1878. 1
[2] S. Banerjee, V. K. Niyas, M. Soneja, A. P. Shibeesh, M. Basheer, R. Sadanandan, N. Wig, and A. Biswas, “First Experience of Ribavirin Postexposure Prophylaxis for Nipah Virus, Tried During the 2018 Outbreak in Kerala, India,” Journal of Infection 78(6) (2019), 491–503. 1
[3] W. E. Boyce and R. C. DiPrima, Elementary Differential Equations and Boundary Value Problems, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2012. 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 3.3
[4] F. Brauer and C. Castillo-Chaves, Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology, Springer, New York, 2012. 3.3.1
[5] C. Castillo-Chavez, Z. Feng, and W. Huang, “On the Computation of Basic Reproductive Number and Its Role on Global Stability,” in Mathematical Approaches for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: An Introduction, 2002, pp. 229–254. 3.4.3
[6] M. S. Chadha, J. A. Comer, L. Lowe, P. A. Rota, P. E. Rollin, W. J. Bellini, T. G. Ksiazek, and A. Mishra, “Nipah Virus-Associated Encephalitis Outbreak, Siliguri, India,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 12(2) (2006), 235–240. 1
[7] P. K. Ching, V. C. Reyes, M. N. Sucaldito, E. Tayag, A. B. Columna-Vingno, F. M. F. Jr., C. B. G. Jr., J. J. Sejvar, D. Eagles, G. Geoffrey, E. Dueger, Y. Kaku, and S. Morikawa, “Outbreak of Henipavirus Infection, Philippines, 2014,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 21(2) (2015), 328–331. 1
[8] K. B. Chua, W. J. Bellini, P. A. Rota, B. H. Harcourt, A. Tamin, S. K. Lam, T. G. Ksiazek, P. E. Rollin, S. R. Zaki, W. Shieh, C. S. Goldsmith, D. J. Gubler, J. T. Roehrig, B. Eaton, A. R. Gould, J. Olson, H. Field, P. Daniels, A. E. Ling, C. J. Peters, L. J. Anderson, and B. W. Mahy, “Nipah Virus: A Recently Emergent Deadly Paramyxovirus,” Science 288(5470) (2000), 1432–1435. 1
[9] O. Diekmann and J. Heesterbeek, Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis, and Interpretation, Wiley, Hoboken, 2000. 3.3.1
[10] S. Gazal, N. Sharma, S. Gazal, M. Tikoo, D. Shikha, G. A. Badroo, M. Rashid, and S. Lee, “Nipah and Hendra Viruses: Deadly Zoonotic Paramyxoviruses with the Potential to Cause the Next Pandemic,” Pathogens 11(12) (2022), 1419. 1
[11] K. J. Goh, C. T. Tan, N. K. Chew, P. S. Tan, A. Kamarulzaman, S. A. Sarji, K. T. Wong, B. J. Abdullah, K. B. Chua, and S. K. Lam, “Clinical Features of Nipah Virus Encephalitis Among Pig Farmers in Malaysia,” The New England Journal of Medicine 342(17) (2000), 1229–1235. 1
[12] N. Gupta, S. Saurabh, S. K. Pradhan, P. Gupta, and A. Sharma, “Nipah Virus Outbreak: A Case Study of the 2021 Kerala, India Outbreak,” Journal of Infectious Diseases Research 5(2) (2021), 112–118. 1
[13] E. S. Gurley, S. T. Hegde, K. Hossain, H. M. Sazzad, M. J. Hossain, M. Rahman, M. A. Sharker, H. Salje, M. S. Islam, J. H. Epstein, S. U. Khan, A. M. Kilpatrick, P. Daszak, and S. P. Luby, “Convergence of Humans, Bats, Trees, and Culture in Nipah Virus Transmission, Bangladesh,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 23(9) (2017), 1446–1453. 1
[14] J. M. Heffernan, R. J. Smith, and L. M. Wahl, “Perspectives on the Basic Reproductive Ratio,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2(4) (2005), 281–293. 3.3.1
[15] S. P. Luby, M. Rahman, M. J. Hossain, L. S. Blum, M. M. Husain, E. Gurley, R. Khan, B. Ahmed, S. Rahman, N. Nahar, E. Kenah, J. A. Comer, and T. G. Ksiazek, “Foodborne Transmission of Nipah Virus, Bangladesh,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 12(12) (2006), 1888–1894. 1
[16] M. K. Mondal, M. Hanif, and M. H. A. Biswas, “SEI Model for Transmission of Nipah Virus,” International Journal of Modelling and Simulation 37(3) (2017), 185–197.
[17] J. Murray, Mathematical Biology I: An Introduction, Springer-Verlag, New York, 3rd ed., 2002. 3.4.1, 3.4.2
[18] B. Nikolay, H. Salje, M. J. Hossain, A. K. Khan, H. M. Sazzad, M. Rahman, P. Daszak, U. Stroher, J. R. Pulliam, A. M. Kilpatrick, S. T. Nichol, J. D. Klena, S. Sultana, S. Afroj, and S. P. Luby, “Transmission of Nipah Virus: 14 Years of Investigations in Bangladesh,” The New England Journal of Medicine 380(19) (2019), 1804–1814. 1
[19] R. Patel, A. Kumar, R. Singh, and M. Jain, “Re-emergence of Nipah Virus Outbreak in Kerala, India: Lesson Learned," Indian Journal of Epidemiology 9(3) (2023), 210–215. 1
[20] N. I. Paton, Y. S. Leo, S. R. Zaki, A. P. Auchus, K. E. Lee, A. E. Ling, S. K. Chew, B. Ang, P. E. Rollin, T. Umapathi, I. Sng, C. C. Lee, E. Lim, and T. G. Ksiazek, “Outbreak of Nipah-Virus Infection Among Abattoir Workers in Singapore,” Lancet 354(9186) (1999), 1253–1256. 1
[21] J. R. Pulliam, J. Epstein, J. Dushoff, S. Rahman, M. Bunning, and A. A. Field, “Agricultural Intensification, Priming for Persistence and the Emergence of Nipah Virus: A Lethal Bat-Borne Zoonosis,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 9(66) (2012), 89–101. 1
[22] M. Z. Rahman, A. Islam, E. S. Gurley, M. J. Hossain, N. Nahar, R. Sultana, and S. P. Luby, “Outbreak of Nipah Virus Infection in Bangladesh, January to February 2023,” Journal of Infectious Diseases 227(5) (2023), 890–898. 1
[23] A. Raza, J. Awrejcewicz, M. Rafiq, and M. Mohsin, “Breakdown of a Nonlinear Stochastic Nipah Virus Epidemic Models Through Efficient Numerical Methods,” Entropy 23(12) (2021), 1588. 1, 3.1
[24] S. Reddy, S. Rao, and V. K. Menon, “Epidemiological Investigation of the 2023 Nipah Virus Outbreak in Kerala, India,” Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 11(4) (2023), 275–281. 1
[25] D. Sinha and A. Sinha, “Mathematical Model of Zoonotic Nipah Virus in South-East Asia Region,” Acta Scientific Microbiology 2(9) (2019), 1–10.
[26] World Health Organization, “Nipah Virus,” https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/nipah-virus, 2021. Accessed May 21, 2024. 1
[27] Worldometer, “Bangladesh Population,” bangladesh-population/, 2023. Accessed January 2026.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
[28] S. R. Zaki, “Nipah Virus Infection: Pathology and Pathogenesis of an Emerging Infectious Disease,” in Proceeding of International Union of Microbiological Society, 1999, p. 39. 1
[29] A. D. Zewdie and S. Gakkhar, “A Mathematical Model of Nipah Virus Infection,” Journal of Applied Mathematics (2020), 1–10. 1, 3.1.
[30] A. D. Zewdie, S. Gakkhar, and S. K. Gupta, “Human–Animal Nipah Virus Transmission: Model Analysis and Optimal Control,” International Journal of Dynamics and Control 11 (2023), 1974–1994.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Binti Mualifatul Rosydah, Marsudi, Wuryansari Muharini Kusumawinahyu, Nur Shofianah
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
